CHL v. USHL from today's blog

[stlfan]

OK, so I found this interesting. Here is a quote from the end of the study that Marc referenced:

It is clear that regardless of the analysis method, players who play in the USHL and CHL perform approximately the same once they get to higher-level leagues. USHL players are younger than CHL players, so USHL teams themselves can not compete with CHL teams, but 18-year-olds in the USHL would maintain their level of scoring if they transferred to Canadian Tier I Junior.

I find it interesting that he says they can't compete but didn't the USHL go to play some teams from the QMJHL and win...a lot? I agree with most of what he said, however, I still think that the USHL is far more competitive than what he is giving them credit for with that particular statement.

[Marc Foster]

Fanny, I know thing are going to take some getting used to navigation wise, but this is the perfect example of a thread that would go in the "Blog Discussion" bucket...

[stlfan]

admin said:

Fanny, I know thing are going to take some getting used to navigation wise, but this is the perfect example of a thread that would go in the "Blog Discussion" bucket...

Sorry about that Marc. I'll figure it out eventually (I'm a slow learner!!)

[Marc Foster]

Not a problem... I am probably not helping matters by moving things around... but I am trying to let things develop on their own before I make changes...

[orjan]

Two USHL teams did play a pre-season round robin against two QMJHL teams. IIRC the Lincoln Stars won two and the Ice came up with an OT win and a loss. That is a good argument for the USHL being competitive with the CHL, though based on a tiny sample set and games that did not feature final lineups for either set of teams.

The Canadians have a built in counter argument in pointing to the fact the Canada West and Canada East finished 1 - 2 in the World Jr A tourney held in Canada. A USHL all-star team lost in the semis. The Canadian teams were selected from the CJAHL teams, not the CHL.

And the USHL supporter replies, "but the Canadian teams were selected from several leagues each while the US team came from a single league"!

The final answer: Who knows.

[stlfan]

orjan said:

Two USHL teams did play a pre-season round robin against two QMJHL teams. IIRC the Lincoln Stars won two and the Ice came up with an OT win and a loss. That is a good argument for the USHL being competitive with the CHL, though based on a tiny sample set and games that did not feature final lineups for either set of teams.

The Canadians have a built in counter argument in pointing to the fact the Canada West and Canada East finished 1 - 2 in the World Jr A tourney held in Canada. A USHL all-star team lost in the semis. The Canadian teams were selected from the CJAHL teams, not the CHL.

And the USHL supporter replies, "but the Canadian teams were selected from several leagues each while the US team came from a single league"!

The final answer: Who knows.

And an argument can be made about three St. Louis area players. One tore up the NAHL in scoring and moved to the OHL and is doing the same thing there. Another was dropped from and OHL team and doesn't seem to be tearing up the USHL. A third left an OHL team, went to the NAHL and doesn't seem to be having a standout year there either. Bottom line is that Canada would have you believe that the CHL is the only route to pro hockey. Common factor? None of them have college eligibility (at least not without jumping through some major hoops) and only one of them will play a decent level of pro hockey and potentially the NHL. I would contend that the USHL is the best route for two reasons, 1. it is just as competitive and 2. it protects your college eligibility for when you DON'T make it to pro hockey (See Marc's other story about the percentage of players that actually make it to the NHL). So at the end of the day, there is only one clear choice in my opinion, and that is the USHL.

[orjan]

I agree with you completely for anyone who is even considering college in the US. The issues are different for the Canadian players who make up the vast majority of CHL rosters. They can play in the CHL, which is considered a worthy goal in and of itself, and then play for a Canadian university. Unless they specifically want to play NCAA hockey, there is no reason for a Canadian to pass on the CHL.

[stlfan]

orjan said:

I agree with you completely for anyone who is even considering college in the US. The issues are different for the Canadian players who make up the vast majority of CHL rosters. They can play in the CHL, which is considered a worthy goal in and of itself, and then play for a Canadian university. Unless they specifically want to play NCAA hockey, there is no reason for a Canadian to pass on the CHL.

I agree with that, however, it drives me crazy when I see Americans go north of the border to play with the expectation that it will get them to the NHL (which seems to be the sales pitch). So it doesn't sound like we are all that far apart, if at all, on our opinions.

[Marc Foster]

orjan said:

I agree with you completely for anyone who is even considering college in the US. The issues are different for the Canadian players who make up the vast majority of CHL rosters. They can play in the CHL, which is considered a worthy goal in and of itself, and then play for a Canadian university. Unless they specifically want to play NCAA hockey, there is no reason for a Canadian to pass on the CHL.

I do have a problem with the CHL's propaganda regarding their CIS option, specifically with the league scholarship funds. When you look at the average CHL scholarship payout for someone going to college, it's rather small (about $3000 total, plus or minus), and doesn't compare at all to even a quarter scholly in the NCAA. Not everyone in the CHL is making six figures (and if you are, you'll likely soon find yourself in the NHL).

Part of that is based on the 1-1 deal the CHL has with players. Play a year for us, get a year's tuition. Then you have the issue of what team is responsible for paying. I think the WHL handles it through the league, but the OHL and Q handle it by team, which means there can be (and has been) finger pointing as to who pays for a kid. I'd have to go back into the blog archives, but there's even been lawsuits over it.

[hawerchuk]

stlfan said:

OK, so I found this interesting. Here is a quote from the end of the study that Marc referenced:

It is clear that regardless of the analysis method, players who play in the USHL and CHL perform approximately the same once they get to higher-level leagues. USHL players are younger than CHL players, so USHL teams themselves can not compete with CHL teams, but 18-year-olds in the USHL would maintain their level of scoring if they transferred to Canadian Tier I Junior.

I find it interesting that he says they can't compete but didn't the USHL go to play some teams from the QMJHL and win...a lot? I agree with most of what he said, however, I still think that the USHL is far more competitive than what he is giving them credit for with that particular statement.

hi - thanks for reading the paper. I was a little vague in my conclusions, but what I was trying to say here was that the numbers indicate that an 18-year-old USHL player would maintain the same level of scoring at age 19 if he jumped over to the CHL for the next season. But there is a big skill improvement from age 18 to 19, so it's not entirely due to the level of the league.

I think we can confidently say:

1) The level of play in the USHL is at least 80% of that in the CHL.
2) The level of play in the USHL is much higher than in Canadian Junior A.

We just have to be really careful about player ages here. I think a CHL team with a bunch of 19- and 20-year-olds would beat a younger USHL team.

[stlfan]

hawerchuk said:

stlfan said:

OK, so I found this interesting. Here is a quote from the end of the study that Marc referenced:

It is clear that regardless of the analysis method, players who play in the USHL and CHL perform approximately the same once they get to higher-level leagues. USHL players are younger than CHL players, so USHL teams themselves can not compete with CHL teams, but 18-year-olds in the USHL would maintain their level of scoring if they transferred to Canadian Tier I Junior.

I find it interesting that he says they can't compete but didn't the USHL go to play some teams from the QMJHL and win...a lot? I agree with most of what he said, however, I still think that the USHL is far more competitive than what he is giving them credit for with that particular statement.

hi - thanks for reading the paper. I was a little vague in my conclusions, but what I was trying to say here was that the numbers indicate that an 18-year-old USHL player would maintain the same level of scoring at age 19 if he jumped over to the CHL for the next season. But there is a big skill improvement from age 18 to 19, so it's not entirely due to the level of the league.

I think we can confidently say:

1) The level of play in the USHL is at least 80% of that in the CHL.
2) The level of play in the USHL is much higher than in Canadian Junior A.

We just have to be really careful about player ages here. I think a CHL team with a bunch of 19- and 20-year-olds would beat a younger USHL team.

I think I could agree with that, for the most part. My biggest problem was the sentence that stated, very clearly, "USHL teams themselves can not compete with CHL teams." I absolutely think they can "compete" with CHL teams, maybe not win every game, but they certainly can compete. And Marc brings up some very valid points about Major Junior college options. I say if a Canadian kid wants to go that route, great for him and good luck down the road. I would just rather see American players stay home, play in what I see as a comparable league, protect college and make that decision later. Now, I also realize that college isn't an option for some players...academically, and I will certainly conceed that point. So I'm not totally wearing rose colored glasses...maybe just a little pink!! ;D

[Ryan]

orjan said:

Two USHL teams did play a pre-season round robin against two QMJHL teams. IIRC the Lincoln Stars won two and the Ice came up with an OT win and a loss. That is a good argument for the USHL being competitive with the CHL, though based on a tiny sample set and games that did not feature final lineups for either set of teams.

The Canadians have a built in counter argument in pointing to the fact the Canada West and Canada East finished 1 - 2 in the World Jr A tourney held in Canada. A USHL all-star team lost in the semis. The Canadian teams were selected from the CJAHL teams, not the CHL.

And the USHL supporter replies, "but the Canadian teams were selected from several leagues each while the US team came from a single league"!

The final answer: Who knows.

It was Omaha, not Lincoln..just had to point that out ;D

With the Jr. A Challenge, the USHL did not send the best team they could send. I believe coaches were able to say no to some players going, but I could be wrong.

There is no doubt in my mind that the BCHL and AJHL are top junior leagues and could rival what the USHL does. All 3 leagues develop quality players. The NAHL is down a notch, but they have quality players as well.

[hawerchuk]

stlfan said:

I think I could agree with that, for the most part. My biggest problem was the sentence that stated, very clearly, "USHL teams themselves can not compete with CHL teams." I absolutely think they can "compete" with CHL teams, maybe not win every game, but they certainly can compete.

The difference in the level of play is probably similar to the gap between the Swedish Elite League and the NHL. Beyond that, it's all semantic arguments about the meaning of the word 'compete'.

What impressed me the most is how quickly USHL players have become a significant fraction of NHLers.

[smilinshark]

Hopefully, in the very near future, we'll see more opportunities arise for NAHL types, and that the gap can be slowly but surely closed. Being the aulde pfarte that I am.........I also think that the kids MUST consider their education as well as their talent(s). Reality must be part of the equation.

[Flameseh?]

smilinshark said:

Hopefully, in the very near future, we'll see more opportunities arise for NAHL types, and that the gap can be slowly but surely closed. Being the aulde pfarte that I am.........I also think that the kids MUST consider their education as well as their talent(s). Reality must be part of the equation.

I'd love to see a similar study by Hawerchuk or others on the USHL vs. NAHL. The latter has developed a reputation on the street to the effect of the first line or two of several NAHL teams would be competitive with USHL. (there's that word "compete" again). I don't know. I'd also like to be able to see some stats with how the NAHL would compete with the WHL teams, which I follow fairly closely. An interesting discussion. Glad I'm here!

[stephenheisler]

What concerns me most about the CHL is this. The bantam drafts. How can a kid, American or Canadiian, decide at age 15, about his future? The CHL machine tells them all that they are honest pro prospects, but the fact is, that is not the case. No other major sport does this. Well, except golf and tennis.

The bottom line is this, as it always is, it is about money. These teams area business. the game is the product. Win, and you fill seats. Get kids drafted, and into the NHL, and it makes it that much easier to convince the next bantam player that it could be his turn in 3 years. The more prospects you have in the system, the better chance you have of catching lightning in a bottle... again. These owners have to win to make money.

The USHL has got itself caught up in this game. Let them play it. But the fact remains that the NCAA likes the junior programs because it gives them players (more product) with a degree of advanced maturity over trying to do what all the other NCAA sports have to do, with true (18yr old) freshmen.

Somebody (NAHL) needs to step up, eliminate the 16 & 17s, and go with all HS grads. Do this as a league.

[Marc Foster]

We've essentially got two threads on the same topic, so I'm going to lock this one...